ISIS Threat Assessment Map – Syria | July 2026

The Syria Monitor Strategic Research Center presents its ISIS Threat Assessment Map for Syria – July 2026, providing an analytical overview of the current threat environment across the country based on field reporting, operational patterns, geographic analysis, and security indicators.

The assessment identifies the Syrian Desert (Badiya) and its extension into eastern and southern Deir ez-Zor as the primary area of ISIS activity, where the group continues to maintain active cells capable of conducting improvised explosive device (IED) attacks, targeted assassinations, ambushes, and hit-and-run operations while exploiting the region’s vast desert terrain.

The map also highlights elevated threat levels in the Raqqa countryside, Al-Shaddadi area in southern Al-Hasakah, and the eastern desert of As-Suwayda, reflecting continued operational mobility and the presence of active ISIS networks.

Meanwhile, northern Aleppo countryside and Damascus and its surrounding countryside are assessed as moderate-risk areas, where isolated security indicators and sporadic incidents warrant continued monitoring despite the absence of sustained operational activity.

In contrast, Daraa Governorate and Syria’s coastal region currently remain within the low-threat category, with no significant indicators suggesting organized ISIS operational activity during the assessment period.

This assessment is dynamic and will be updated regularly as new field information becomes available. It is based not only on recorded attacks but also on ISIS’s operational capabilities, freedom of movement, geographical conditions, historical activity, and emerging security indicators that may signal future escalation.

The ISIS Threat Assessment Map is part of the Security Indicators series published by the Syria Monitor Strategic Research Center, aiming to provide researchers, policymakers, and media organizations with reliable, evidence-based assessments of extremist threats in Syria.

Syria Monitor – Strategic Research Center
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